Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?
7
129Ṁ2252028
32%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Shawn Presser, a known figure in the AI community, suggests that if AI can solve 100% of the solvable problems on MTurk, it would indicate the achievement of superintelligence.
This market is to predict whether this will be the case by July , 2028. Resolution criteria: If by July, 2028, there is a consensus among experts or clear evidence that AI can solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems, the market resolves as 'Yes'.
Sources: [Shawn Presser's Tweet](https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1677600287391903745)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@IsaacKing For the purposes of this prediction, it would include any task that a human worker can complete on the platform by 2028.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028
30% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
60% chance
Will any AI solve more than four of AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks in 2025?
28% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
21% chance
Will a Millennium Prize problem be solved in the year 2025 with the help of AI?
3% chance
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
2% chance
Will an AI system capable of doing tasks that take humans eight hours as determined by METR.org, exist by 2027
82% chance
Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?
35% chance
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
38% chance
Will AI automate all remote jobs that do not require a legal person by Jan 1st 2027?
6% chance