Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?
Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?
7
129Ṁ2252028
32%
chance
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Shawn Presser, a known figure in the AI community, suggests that if AI can solve 100% of the solvable problems on MTurk, it would indicate the achievement of superintelligence.
This market is to predict whether this will be the case by July , 2028. Resolution criteria: If by July, 2028, there is a consensus among experts or clear evidence that AI can solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems, the market resolves as 'Yes'.
Sources: [Shawn Presser's Tweet](https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1677600287391903745)
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@IsaacKing For the purposes of this prediction, it would include any task that a human worker can complete on the platform by 2028.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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