Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028? | Manifold

Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?

7

129Ṁ225

2028

32%

chance

1H

6H

1D

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1M

ALL

Shawn Presser, a known figure in the AI community, suggests that if AI can solve 100% of the solvable problems on MTurk, it would indicate the achievement of superintelligence.

This market is to predict whether this will be the case by July , 2028. Resolution criteria: If by July, 2028, there is a consensus among experts or clear evidence that AI can solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems, the market resolves as 'Yes'.

Sources: [Shawn Presser's Tweet](https://twitter.com/theshawwn/status/1677600287391903745)

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What counts as an MTurk problem?

@IsaacKing For the purposes of this prediction, it would include any task that a human worker can complete on the platform by 2028.

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