What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2028?
7
1.1kṀ11582028
85%
Transformer-based architecture
77%
Over 1T parameters
50%
Part of the AlphaProof family of models (AlphaProof N and variations)
37%
Developed by OpenAI
34%
Narrow domain of knowledge. ie Does not know random facts such as when Google was founded, or who won the 1960 presidential election.
31%
Developed by Google Deepmind
31%
Part of the o1 family of models (o1, o2, etc. and variations)
26%
Developed by a non-British and non-American company
20%
Part of the GPT-N family of models (GPT-5, GPT-6, and variations)
10%
Energy-based Model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy-based_model)
10%
Based on Symbolic AI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbolic_artificial_intelligence)
An option resolves YES if it is true about the AI model, or program, known to be State of the Art in terms of the FrontierMath benchmark, at the end of the year 2027. It resolves NO otherwise.
You're welcome to add any interesting facts that might or might not be true about the state of the art in math problems, as defined by achieving the highest score on the FrontierMath benchmarks.
I reserve the right to cancel any option that is too vague, too improbable, etc.
See also:
/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-y0LE5uE9n9
/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-ROldIhZZgt
/Bayesian/what-will-true-of-the-sota-ai-on-th-RQptyR5uO8 (this market)
/Bayesian/will-an-ai-achieve-85-performance-o-hyPtIE98qZ
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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