MMLU 90% #1: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 90% by the start of 2024?
18
83
Ṁ1.1KṀ350
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ59 | |
2 | Ṁ34 | |
3 | Ṁ26 | |
4 | Ṁ25 | |
5 | Ṁ24 |
Sort by:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVzuvf9D9BU&ab_channel=AIExplained
He says it will likely score 93% on full MMLU
Should resolve yes very soon
Related questions
MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?
16% chance
Short-term AI 3.4: By June 2024 will SOTA on APPS be >= 25%?
25% chance
MMLU 99% #2: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2025?
15% chance
Short Term AI 3.2: By June 2024 will SOTA on MATH be >= 90%?
14% chance
BIG-bench accuracy 75% #2: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2025?
60% chance
MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?
12% chance
By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs?
26% chance
Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?
63% chance
Short-term AI 3.3: By June 2024 will SOTA on HumanEval be >= 99%?
5% chance
Will a text model achieve 100% performance on the MMLU in five years?
28% chance