MMLU 99% #5: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2028?

MMLU 99% #4: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2027?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2026?

Will a open source pure Mamaba LLM surpass 82 MMLU on MMLU (5-shot) before end of year 2024?

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

MMLU 99% #2: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2025?

BIG-bench accuracy 75% #2: Will SOTA for a single model on BIG-bench pass 75% by the start of 2025?

Will there be a period of 12 contiguous months during which no new compute-SOTA LM is released, by Jan 1, 2033?

By 2026, will it be standard practice to sandbox SOTA LLMs?

What will be true of the SOTA AI on the FrontierMath benchmark, before 2027?