Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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I believe polymarket UMA resolved this market correctly based on the rules it laid out in the description. I also believe @vdb resolved correctly by resolving to the outcome of polymarket.
Lets see if a successful lawsuit actually happens off the back of this
@Dynd Imo very unlikely unless the Polymarket commenters actually pull off a class action lawsuit as they so urge each other to do
@ChadCotty
So WHO decided this? Who ever closed this does not know how to read!
"Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran."
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”."
An MOU is NOT a legal document, nor does it claim to be permanent, so the requirements HAVE NOT BEEN MET!
It is not June 30th so this cannot be closed until 11.59 30 Jun 2026.
@Buckwheat You should look up the UMA voting system Polymarket uses for resolution. Yes it's a bit cooked.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen Trump on agreement: President Donald Trump said the agreement is not a final deal, adding that the US will resume strikes if Iran doesn’t “behave.” He also denied the US would be investing in a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, or that he asked Gulf countries to commit funds.
@KevinBlaw It doesn't matter what's the actual situation though, only what the deal says. My understanding is that the MoU itself, as described by the US and Iran, includes an immediate cessation of war and an agreement to negotiate a final deal within 60 days, while never mentioning anything about the war restarting. The fact that the war will likely restart if negotiations for the final deal isn't from the MoU, but rather just from informal statements that technically are legally seperate to the actual deal. Like it's technically more like, external to the terms of the deal, both sids are threatening to cancel the deal if negotiations fail, where the deal itself both calls for a permanent end to the war and doesn't mention its own temporariness.
IMO it would make a lot more sense for the polymarket to simply be measuring a media consensus that the war is over, rather than vague legal technicalities of the language of the deal. But it's hard to right good resolution criteira, and I doubt it was intentional of Polymarket to create such a controversial market.
@Dssc I hear you. This seems more like a ceasefire. Anyway, it doesn’t make me want to bet with polymarket.