Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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@TiredCliche I mean, they did sign a piece of paper that said they were agreeing to permanently end the war. Who said an "agreement" has to actually settle any of the issues? Or actually cause the war to stop?
@AhronMaline They actually didn't. The piece of paper they signed says "The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts." So the MOU isn't the actual deal.
@TiredCliche sure, but it also says
The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America, and their allies in the current war, by signing this MoU, declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon
Nobody said it needs to be self-consistent...
Betting NO was in part a bet against the US being this level of stupid
@AhronMaline That part doesn't say that they are agreeing to permanently end the war, though. Just "military operations on all fronts." A military operation is always a temporary thing.
@PaulWyman the last few polymarket mirrors will inspir me to have a bespoke exposure limit for those markets, and only treat them as nonserious
I believe polymarket UMA resolved this market correctly based on the rules it laid out in the description. I also believe @vdb resolved correctly by resolving to the outcome of polymarket.
Lets see if a successful lawsuit actually happens off the back of this
@Dynd Imo very unlikely unless the Polymarket commenters actually pull off a class action lawsuit as they so urge each other to do