Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
40
250Ṁ92022027
22%
chance
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Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2025 and end of 2026. Otherwise NO.
Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US (see here for context).
Based on this question: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-us-enter-a-recession-by-en
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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