Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)

Question

Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.

Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.

May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.

In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.

Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US (see here for context).

(Yes, there are already questions on this but their specifications were worse imo)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 1% chance (290 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).