Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
259
10kṀ150k2026
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between start of 2024 and end of 2025. Otherwise NO.
Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US (see here for context).
(Yes, there are already questions on this but their specifications were worse imo)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
33% chance
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
15% chance
Did the US enter a recession before the end of 2024?
1% chance
Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
15% chance
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
87% chance
Will the world experience a recession in 2025?
25% chance
Will the NBER Announce the US is in recession during 2025 by Q2 2026?
43% chance
In which quarters of 2025 will US GDP contract? (3rd estimate)
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
3% chance
What year will the US enter a recession next?
2027