A global recession is characterized by a significant decline in economic activity across the world, lasting more than a few months. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) monitors global economic conditions and provides assessments. Previous global recessions include the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic-induced recession.
Details:
Historical Context: Previous recessions and their triggers, such as financial crises, pandemics, and geopolitical events.
Factors to Consider: Economic indicators (GDP growth, unemployment rates), monetary policies, and global trade conditions.
Data Sources: IMF reports, World Bank data, and economic analysis from major financial institutions.
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Bizarre this is so high... global recessions are precipitated by things like pandemics, world, wars, and once-in-a-century financial disasters (the great recession was the worst downturn since the Great Depression). Baseline odds should be that this happens once per ~25 years, which would put the fair price for this market below 10%.
@jonsimon https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-is-the-probability-of-a-g-cHDAaZKkQAij9jGZK1WuFw#1
Since 1960: 4/64 = once per 16 years = 8.125% base rate
But that's assuming independence, and the things are somewhat cyclical, with the last being 16 years ago, so <10% seems too low
