The markets betting on a recession are really bugging me by just using two quarters of negative GDP. I want to see the spread between betting on two quarters of negative GDP and the NBER committee, which is a softer measure takes more things into account (and can't be hacked by the US Government faking data as easily, if you are a pessimist).

AI Summary:

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announces, by June 30, 2026, that a recession occurred in the United States during any part of the year 2025. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." (nber.org) If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee is responsible for officially dating recessions in the U.S. economy. Their determinations are retrospective and based on a range of economic indicators, including real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. (nber.org) Historically, the NBER's announcements regarding the start and end dates of recessions have lagged behind the actual economic events, sometimes by several months or even over a year. (newsweek.com)

Considerations

As of May 29, 2025, there are mixed signals regarding the U.S. economy. Some analysts have expressed concerns about a potential recession due to factors such as recent tariff implementations and market volatility. (axios.com) However, other reports suggest that easing trade tensions have improved economic outlooks, with institutions like Barclays revising their forecasts to indicate growth rather than contraction. (reuters.com) Traders should consider these varying perspectives and the inherent delays in official recession announcements when making their predictions.