Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the year in which the United States officially enters a recession as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which is the official arbiter of U.S. recessions.

If the NBER declares a recession that began in, for example, November 2025, the market will resolve to 2025, even if the announcement itself comes later. The resolution will be based on the starting date of the recession, not when it is officially declared.

If no recession occurs by 2030, the market will resolve to "2030 or later."