Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
10
Ṁ120Ṁ1.3kJan 2
18%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will close when the following market closes.
Will return yes if the BEA Q3 2024 final estimate is below 0.0% and the NBER dates a recession to have begun in 2024. Will return no if the BEA Q3 2024 final estimate is 0.0% or above and the NBER dates a recession to have begun in 2024. Will return n/a if the NBER does not date a recession to have begun in 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
9% chance
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
7% chance
Will the US enter a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?
5% chance
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
21% chance
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
5% chance
US officially enter a recession in 2024? (NBER)
1% chance
Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2025?
1% chance