Conditional on there being a US recession in 2024, will Q3 2024 have negative gdp growth?
2
8
120
2026
61%
chance

Will close when the following market closes.

Will return yes if the BEA Q3 2024 final estimate is below 0.0% and the NBER dates a recession to have begun in 2024. Will return no if the BEA Q3 2024 final estimate is 0.0% or above and the NBER dates a recession to have begun in 2024. Will return n/a if the NBER does not date a recession to have begun in 2024.

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