Will the USA fight a major land war by 2035?

242Ṁ3174

2034

43%

chance

ALL

At least 50,000 troops deployed to take part in a war. There must be US tanks, artillery and infantry involved in combat.

Borderline cases resolve to "No".

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so "Land" means "involves land forces" even if they're airlifted into an island?

Is Iraq invasion a "major war"?

predictedYES

@a2bb

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War - yes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq - yes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Iraq_(2013%E2%80%932017) - no

What about a civil war?

predictedYES

@Riggin I will N/A this market and go fight the libs

@lukres spoken like a true patriot

predictedYES

I am quite surprised by the low odds so far

@lukres This is concerning. 🫢

Will fighting under the UN flag (like in the Korean war) count?

@mariopasquato Yes, for sure, I don't see why not

predictedYES

@mariopasquato I will just add that it needs to be an actual war. If, say, the Russian Federation collapses and US troops barge in as a purely "peacekeeping force" and there is little or no opposition, it will not count.

How will this resolve if it is a major war but thought in the air and on the sea, like a conflict with China over Taiwan would probably turn out?

@Symmetry I need to see US tanks, artillery & infantry involved in fighting since this question is about a land war. But I suppose I can count some ship/air force crews towards the 50,000.