Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States experiences a civil war before January 1, 2030. A civil war exists when two or more opposing parties within a country resort to arms to settle a conflict or when a substantial portion of the population takes up arms against the legitimate government of a country. For international recognition, the contestants must control territory, have a functioning government, enjoy some foreign recognition, have identifiable regular armed forces, and engage in major military operations. The market resolves NO if no such conflict occurs by the deadline.

Background

Growing political violence and popular unrest in the United States is rated as a high-likelihood, high-impact contingency by foreign policy experts. However, the risks of an actual U.S. civil war in 2025 are negligible according to conflict studies analysis. The likelihood of a large-scale battle between the government and an organized rebel group that goes on for years and claims thousands of lives on both sides is highly unlikely. Only 6.5% of Americans strongly or very strongly agree that civil war is coming, and 3.6% believe it is needed. Despite growing concerns about a potential civil war, there are no real indications that any state or the federal government is preparing for a domestic armed conflict.

Considerations

A modern civil war may not appear as two separate governments emerging with military forces fighting each other, but rather as increased political violence and civil conflict. This definitional ambiguity creates potential resolution disputes—whether the market should resolve based on the formal legal definition (requiring organized belligerents controlling territory) or a broader interpretation of sustained armed conflict.

This description was generated by AI.