per this tweet:
Will Starship make its first flight to Mars by October 27, 2026?
market resolves when Starship makes its first flight to Mars. Starship must land on Mars - any incidents between takeoff and arrival that compromise the ship (and preclude it from landing) will not count for a Yes resolution.
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Well that’s a crying same to launch such a damned sneek attack.
@shankypanky would still appreciate clarification on the criteria here
As others have stated, the description as currently written does not match Elon's claim (and thus I'd personally argue there's a conflict between title and description)
I agree the criteria of this question needs to change to refer to departures instead of arrivals, otherwise it is misleading relative to the tweet.
@shankypanky Yeah, by "when the transit window opens again" Elon obviously means depart by ~Jan 2027 and arrive a few months later. So even if the market closes on Oct 27, it would be wise to wait and resolve in mid-2027.