Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Question

resolve YES if an uncrewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2026. Must go beyond earth orbit

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (104 traders, as of Apr 16, 2026).