Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

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resolve YES if an uncrewed starship that attempts to land on mars or orbit mars launches by the end of 2026. Must go beyond earth orbit

/strutheo/will-the-first-crewed-starship-to-m

/strutheo/will-the-first-selfsustaining-base

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Is 31 Dec 2026 a fixed deadline for leaving Earth orbit?

Or is it the launch window that provides the deadline?

While 2024 window is ~Oct 2024 it can be stretched eg Escapade possibly planning launch Spring 2025 with 11 months travel time rather than 6-7 months travel time that is possible if leave by October 2024.

Add 26 months to Oct 2024 gets Dec 2026 but quite possibly lots of that window is in 2027 and if pushed for time to be ready, I think later period in the window may well be selected.

I now believe the Escapade Spring 2025 launch paragraph above is wrong. Spring 2025 was likely the earliest time a New Glenn might be available but there was no planned trajectory for launch around that time. The 11 month travel time was for an October 2024 launch. There are possible launch dates with trajectories around Q3 2025 - Q2 2026 but these do an Earth gravity assist around late 2026 and arrive ~September 2027. So this is much more like launch early but using Dec 2026 Mars transfer orbit launch window.

So the window isn't as stretchable as I thought, and gave the appearance of, in my post above. Apologies for this misinformation.

There may still be some of ~Dec 2026 window in 2027, but I am not sure how much if any.

Regardless I think it would still be useful to clarify whether it is strictly

"by the end of 2026" for mars transfer orbit burn initiation?

Or is it the Mars transfer orbit window being open and used that provides the deadline?

Launch to orbit in Dec 2026 then either stay in Earth orbit for a couple of years or use an Earth gravity assist around Jan 2029 route for arrival late 2029 does seem sufficiently unlikely that it probably doesn't need an answer. (Seems to me like those use Jan 2029 mars transfer orbit window so not "when the next mars transfer window opens".)

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

Does the Trump win affect this? ...maybe.

Literally any Starship model ship with a stated destination of 'Mars' counts, yes? Does it count if/when it

leaves the atmosphere?
Blows up on the launchpad at ignition?
Blows up on the launchpad during fueling?
Falls off a crane while being moved to the launchpad?

@DavidFWatson when it launches successfully. can be a successor to the starship with another name if that happens

@strutheo You may want to require that it goes beyond Earth orbit. The primary challenge will be refueling enough to make that burn. If it can do that, Musk will send it to Mars regardless of how ready anything else is.