@BTE is making a competitor to Manifold. he's stated that:
Our goal is to release a version that meets the criteria to resolve this [link] market by Christmas.
resolves YES if i believe that all of the following criteria (taken from the original market on Dec 8 1:45am ET) are true on or before 11:59pm Dec 25 PT:
1. There is a publicly-accessible website
2. Which I had/have a hand in creating/running
3. Where anyone with an invitation can sign up for an account
4. And, having signed up, can create something-analogous-to-Manifold-questions
5. And make predictions on "questions" they or others create
6. Such that correct and incorrect predictions have some lasting impact on something in their account similar to Manifold's mana balance (e.g. a balance, reputation tracker, etc).
resolves NO otherwise.
original comment here.
Related questions
I guess this never resolved...? We have a new market about socialpredict, the software underlying BrierFox, which hopefully is more third-party verifiable. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu
Hey Saul saw your new map today, awesome job.
https://saul-munn.notion.site/64b8b93b076a40f598f1788b314039c7?v=472f982a7d834a1185167e48ea1f41e3
Here's the socialpredict software if that fits anywhere:
https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict
Also not sure if you had seen my analysis on the various platforms of the past on this substack from a couple months ago:
https://patdel.substack.com/p/insights-from-recent-prediction-markets
Technically this has already resolved yes, because I already completed the software and launched the website, and anyone who has been whitelisted could be added as an account with a single SQL command. However hosting has been intermittent because I am using a local machine in my basement. This represents an edge case, the market could hypothetically resolve YES using a super strict reading of the source market and you’re going to have to come up with your own interpretation of how to resolve the market. Eg we didn’t give you personally access yet so that might define this particular market.
@saulmunn @PatrickDelaney can i also be allowlisted? i gave bte my email, and can dm you the same!
gotta be a day one creator on the other platform!
@mattyb I'm just saying that a release also doesn't have to mean it's available on Christmas if you start splitting hairs. Patrick gave indication it was already released. if there's a technical reason it's down at the moment it doesn't mean the release doesn't happen.
so it's not necessarily clear cut and open to Saul's subjective meaning/interpretation imo. If Saul didn't have access when it was up, I could see feeling like the release was unconfirmed etc.
@shankypanky Saul’s a yes holder.
With how subjective this all is “resolves YES if i believe that all of the following criteria”, I’m scared haha
@mattyb Saul will resolve with integrity, either way
subjective wasn't the right word - I mean to say the resolution is up to his intentions here and I believe he'll govern appropriately when he gets to it
@mattyb I have seen BTE resolve bets that made him loose 10s of thousands and he has high confidence in Saul so I would think he would resolve against his own interests for reputational concerns if it came to it.
@PatrickDelaney thanks. i don’t distrust Saul, but with low margins, I’m not willing to take the risk, honestly.
seems extremely unlikely (10%?) that they’ll release after christmas but before EOY. @BTE could you confirm?
@saulmunn It is gonna be close. My cat died and it wrecked me so I have fallen a bit behind but not too far. This one might come down to the wire...