If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc).
12
32
Ṁ5.3kṀ200
resolved May 10
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Jan 15, 10:28pm: Semi-random market, like a coin flip but a bit more fun. Trump picks. Resolves as MKT if he does not run.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ39 | |
2 | Ṁ24 | |
3 | Ṁ20 | |
4 | Ṁ10 | |
5 | Ṁ10 |
Sort by:
@firstuserhere No can do - the market has to close before us trustworthyish folk can resolve. I’ve already tried to get the admins’ attention. @DavidChee? @ian?
@samanddeanus There are all sorts of second-order effects, like his probability of acknowledging is not uniform over time. I think it's close enough to 50%.
Related questions
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
51% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
51% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US presidential election?
51% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2024?
97% chance
Will Trump win 2024 elections?
50% chance
Will Trump be elected in 2024?
46% chance
If Donald Trump is the 2024 nominee, will he win the presidential election?
50% chance
If Trump loses the 2024 election, will he run again in 2028?
43% chance
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 Election?
47% chance
Will Donald Trump win 2024 presidential election?
49% chance