[Metaculus] Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
Plus
21
Ṁ6841resolved Sep 23
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?
Conditional on a war between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon, how many will die on the Hezbollah/Lebanese side before 2025?
Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
20% chance
Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before 2025?
5% chance
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
2% chance
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
3% chance
Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 10,000 deaths before 2025?
1% chance
Will there be at least 1000 Israeli civilian deaths in war this year?
10% chance
Israel-Hezbollah conflict killing >400 before 2024? And US and Iran at war before 2025?
Will the death toll in the current Israel-Palestinian conflict reach 100,000?
75% chance