Will a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
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2025
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This question will resolve as Yes if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reports 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict (specifically, the category "state-based violence"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.

If UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as N/A.

The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an illegitimate entity and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. Tensions have increased in recent years, particularly with Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions, further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel.

In recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq, and rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel. These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region.

U.S. officials stated that Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions.

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