If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if Donald Trump is elected president in 2024 and, on December 31, 2025, regulation is in place in the United States that satisfies the following:

• All companies developing, training, or planning to train a dual-use foundation model with more than (10^{26}) integer or floating-point operations must provide the US federal government with all of the following information:

  • Notification of activities and plans related to dual-use foundation models, including security protections taken to safeguard the training process against threats.

  • Information on the ownership of model weights and security protections taken to protect model weights.

  • For developed models, the results of red-teaming activities.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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