Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?
Will an AI become president of the United States before 2040?
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Assuming that AI's continue to progress in capability, will there be a point in time when we might opt to have an AI leader at some point in the near future?
It does not necessarily have to be an AGI or an AI Superintelligence. And it also counts if an AI is confirmed to be making the vast majority of the decisions for the president by then.
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bought Ṁ1 NO9mo
I like the implication of fine-grained control by the people of who is elected, implied in the phrase "we might opt".
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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