
[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
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Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, on January 1st 2030, at least 20 countries accept the statutes of an actively operating organization that regulates transformative AI projects by monitoring the capabilities of AI labs in those countries. The question resolves as No otherwise.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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