[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
9
41
Ṁ350Ṁ170
2030
66%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, on January 1st 2030, at least 20 countries accept the statutes of an actively operating organization that regulates transformative AI projects by monitoring the capabilities of AI labs in those countries. The question resolves as No otherwise.
This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?
72% chance
Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity?
35% chance
If an international AI regulation body is created before 2025, is Yudkowsky invited to hold a position?
14% chance
Will any AI cause an international incident before August 2024? (M1300 subsidy)
8% chance
Will the U.S. create a new federal agency to regulate AI by the end of 2024?
13% chance
If an international AI regulation body is created before 2025, does Yudkowsky hold a position there?
11% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
24% chance
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
44% chance
Will the Machine Intelligence Research Institute exist in 2030?
73% chance
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
40% chance