Currently Trump seems very bullish on AI/AGI and dismissive of AI safety. This market will resolve YES if I believe that his position on either has changed significantly. It will resolve based on social media posts his accounts make, executive orders etc. as long as it's attributable to him and not a quick quip. What he actually believes is not relevant for this market, only what he says and does. Trump changes his mind a lot, so I'd need to see a shift lasting longer than a couple days (maybe a week of consistency) to resolve YES, or some large decision like a China deal.

If I'm not convinced he has changed his mind before EOY 2026, I will resolve this NO.

Examples of what might make me resolve YES:

• Executive order with regulation of AI companies internal development

• A deal with China negotiating some sort of mutual slow down

• Naming a well known AI safety researcher as AI Czar, i.e. changing its primary role to slowing down progress towards RSI

• Hindering data center construction in some broad way. (Not just blocking a few projects, or making electric grid expansion more difficult)

• The AI force being given pre deployment access to AI models for the purposes of testing alignment or capabilities, not just for military use. Eg. something similar to the UK AISI

• Anything which leads to a significant internal slow down, as long as its intentionally aimed at AI companies. Eg. a compute restriction which is only justified as "protecting american jobs" or "securing our power grid". But more tariffs would not count.

This would not be enough to resolve YES:

• Reiterating that AI companies are responsible for what their AI agents do.

• Being hostile to AI companies to prevent them slowing down, eg. supporting antitrust lawsuits when they try to cooperate to slow down

• Anything aimed mostly at slowing down China while keeping the US on track, even if it has ripple effects on US AI companies

• An AI Czar who is concerned about AI safety but who does not speak loudly about it, or is powerless to do anything they could not do before becoming AI czar

• Any measure which seems intentionally ineffective in slowing down internal future development of AI.

• Trump paying lip service to AI safety while not doing anything relevant to try and slow down progress, or boosting progress more than he slows it down

If Trump switches to be strongly for regulating deployment of AI but internal development continues unimpeded, I will still resolve YES. However, the bar for what constitutes changing his mind goes up the more ineffective the measure is at slowing down internal AI development.

In the end resolution will be mostly vibes based and I will not trade in this market.