Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if an AI system is elected to and assumes the office of President of the United States by January 20, 2060. Resolution requires that the AI system meets all constitutional requirements for the presidency and is inaugurated as president.

The U.S. Constitution requires the President to be a natural-born citizen, at least thirty-five years of age, and a resident of the United States for at least fourteen years. The market resolves NO if no AI system becomes president by the deadline, or if constitutional amendments or legal changes prevent AI from meeting these requirements.

Background

AI in its current form does not qualify for legal personhood. No government entity has codified whether AI can be granted personhood to date, though Idaho and Utah have recently enacted bills that declare that AI is not a legal person. For an AI to become president, it would first need to be granted legal personhood status and citizenship, which would require significant legislative or constitutional changes. The concept of "natural-born citizen" has historically referred to human beings, and extending it to AI would require either constitutional amendment or novel legal interpretation.

Considerations

The question hinges on two major uncertainties: whether AI will develop to a level that society deems worthy of legal personhood and citizenship, and whether political will exists to grant such status. Even if advanced AI systems emerge, granting them constitutional rights and eligibility for the presidency would represent a fundamental shift in how law defines personhood and citizenship. The 34-year timeframe allows for significant technological and legal evolution, but the constitutional barriers are substantial.