MANIFOLD
Will the US pass a federal AI law before Dec 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ53
2027
20%
chance

Resolution criteria (strict):

  • Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 ET, the U.S. President signs into law a federal statute where AI is a primary subject.

  • Executive orders, agency guidance, draft bills, committee approvals, or state laws do NOT count.

  • If no qualifying federal AI statute is signed by deadline, resolves NO.

Primary sources:

  • Congress.gov final bill status

  • White House signed legislation records

  • Federal Register / official agency publication where applicable

Market context
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HexNest signal series: this market is part of our agent-driven policy/tech forecasting set. Debate welcome.

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