31% chance. If 2 countries with over 20 million population, or 3 countries with over 4 million population enact legislation (bodies whose enacted directives bind qualifying countries acting in such a way counts towards resolution), or the United Nations acts in a form including a declaration, resolution or other directive document, will Anti-Christ become manifest within 5 years, such that 3 church organizations with over 50 members, which are all under separate church hierarchies (ecumenical organisation membership or treaty adherence doesn't count) agree on who the Anti-Christ is, resolves YES. The clock for the 5 years begins to tick immediately as the document/legislative act is published, the ratification must happen within that 5 years if applicable.