In 2040, will there be a consensus that large-scale fraud occurred in the 2024 US presidential election? [$10k liquid]
4
41
Ṁ278Ṁ110
2041
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Definite criteria are difficult, but enough votes to flip a close swing state within that state would resolve this YES. Either party counts. Resolves to the judgement of whatever system Manifold uses to judge complicated resolutions, or my judgement if nobody who bet disagrees.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will more than 25% of US Adults believe the 2024 Election was illegitimate in February 2025?
55% chance
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
47% chance
If Joe Biden loses the 2024 presidential election, will he claim there was enough voter fraud to change the results?
2% chance
Will a candidate in the 2024 US presidential election attempt to overturn or invalidate its result?
57% chance
In the 2024 US presidential election, will there be at least one faithless elector?
47% chance
Will the 2024 presidential election result be disputed?
66% chance
Will there be a major deepfake scandal in the 2024 US presidential campaign?
46% chance
Will winner of the 2024 Presidential election be a proponent of 2020 election fraud theories?
47% chance
What will be true about the 2024 presidential election
In 2024, will CISA report a case of tampering with US voting machines to alter vote count?
20% chance