Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?

200Ṁ397

2029

72%

Grüne

59%

FDP

57%

SPD

45%

AfD

43%

CDU

34%

CSU

32%

Die Linke

18%

BSW

This market resolves based on the results of the next German federal election.

For each party listed:

Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Bundestag compared to the number of seats it won in the 2025 federal election
Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.

If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.

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1 Comment

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This is surprisingly hard. My naive heuristics say "parties in government lose voters" and "regression to the mean", but those either contradict each other or oppose my gut feeling. Nice market!

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