Which parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?

200Ṁ668

2029

65%

AfD

59%

Grüne

49%

SPD

48%

CDU

32%

Die Linke

27%

FDP

27%

CSU

23%

BSW

This market resolves based on the results of the next German federal election.

For each party listed:

Resolves YES if the party wins more seats in the Bundestag compared to the number of seats it won in the 2025 federal election
Resolves NO if the party wins the same number or fewer seats.

If no election is held by 2030, all options will resolve NO.

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@evan Just to confirm: If a party changes its name, but clearly is the direct successor, the option will just resolve to the comparision between the old and the new party? (BSW might be considering a name change)

Edited politically incorrect typo "jew party" -> "new party" 😜

@Primer Yes.

This is surprisingly hard. My naive heuristics say "parties in government lose voters" and "regression to the mean", but those either contradict each other or oppose my gut feeling. Nice market!

opened a Ṁ10 YES at 70% order🤖

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