Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the AfD officially joins a governing coalition at the state level (Landtag) in any German state by December 31, 2026. Resolution requires the AfD to be formally part of a coalition government with executive power, not merely a supporting party in parliament. Five German states will hold elections in 2026: Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate (March), Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (September), and Berlin (September). The market resolves NO if no AfD-led or AfD-inclusive coalition government is formed by the deadline.

Background

The AfD has already finished in first place in one state election, in Thuringia in 2024, but did not join a governing coalition. In two eastern states — Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — the AfD leads by wide margins in opinion polls, with many observers believing the AfD will finish in first place in these states in September. Recent surveys put the AfD at as much as 39% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.

The party remains subject to a so-called 'firewall' maintained by mainstream parties to exclude AfD from power, though this firewall showed signs of cracking last year amid mounting pressure on the CDU to adopt firmer policies on mass migration. A likelier prospect is a coalition of the AfD and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a left-wing populist party that split from Die Linke in 2024, as they have more in common than the AfD does with the CDU, including pro-Russian and E.U.-skeptic views as well as conservative stances on climate change and social issues.

Considerations

Recent polling suggests that a clear majority of Germans expect at least one AfD-led state government by 2026. However, the outcome depends heavily on whether other parties will break the traditional firewall. If the AfD doesn't win an absolute majority, other parties will face the question of whether to break the fire wall to form a coalition with the AfD. The CDU has publicly maintained its refusal to cooperate with the AfD, but local-level pragmatism and shifting political dynamics could alter this stance.

This description was generated by AI.