If Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?
12
548
2029
89%
chance

Heavy weapons are tanks, artillery, and jets.

Resolves NA immediately if Ukraine says they don't need heavy weapons anymore. Also NA if Germany plans to send more heavy weapons at close date.

Resolves YES if Ukraine still exists at close date. Existance in the sense of a country according to german maps.

Resolves NO if current german maps at close date show no Ukraine.

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predicts NO

As an aside, this market currently gives 6% probability that Ukraine will not exist anymore by then.

I’m quite confident that Germany only stops if the others (USA, UK, France,…) also stop. So this is close to dropping support in general.

@MaxPayne or maybe just a different government is elected in Germany