Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.

There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border. For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014. Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 

The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again. The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.

This clarification will guide future judgments regarding disputed or diminished state entities in the context of the market.