How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Question

Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.

There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border. For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014. Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).

The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again. The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.

More fineprint from comment discussion:

If Ukraine controls only a minor part of Crimea, I'd still resolve as "Pre-2022".

If Ukraine-controlled landmass is roughly the same as "Pre-2022" then I would resolve it as such, even if the landmass is not all Crimea.

If Crimea becomes an independent state, it will hopefully clearly pick a side and we can resolve it as part of Russia or Ukraine

Update 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): State Existence Clarification:

Rump (Puppet) States: A state that exists only nominally (for example, a rump state) will be treated as not continuing to exist. The creator's example is that Chechnya does not exist, implying that if a state like Ukraine is reduced to a puppet or nominal rump state, it will be resolved as no longer existing.

Recognized Independent States: A state with full, recognized independence is treated as having continued existence, as illustrated by the example that Belarus exists.

This clarification will guide future judgments regarding disputed or diminished state entities in the context of the market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia, followed by No cease-fire of 6 months and Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine are most likely. See the market for live updates (680 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).