This question is an addition to the 2024 question and will use the resolution criteria outlined there: https://manifold.markets/ThomasTwenhoven/will-the-ukrainians-get-the-german#ynapi6my0fn
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how the market will be resolved in the event of a secret provision of missiles:
If missiles are provided in secret, and this secrecy results in no information availability to confirm the transfer, the creator will treat this scenario as equivalent to the missiles not being provided at all.
In such a case, the market will be resolved to No.
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@JussiVilleHeiskanen In terms of information avaiilability, that would be identical to them not being provided at all. I dont see how I could resolve this situation as anything other than No.
Continuation for 2026: https://manifold.markets/ThomasTwenhoven/will-the-ukrainians-get-the-german-S5gNs2tpt8