Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2025?
19
100Ṁ5382026
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is an addition to the 2024 question and will use the resolution criteria outlined there: https://manifold.markets/ThomasTwenhoven/will-the-ukrainians-get-the-german#ynapi6my0fn
Update 2025-06-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified how the market will be resolved in the event of a secret provision of missiles:
If missiles are provided in secret, and this secrecy results in no information availability to confirm the transfer, the creator will treat this scenario as equivalent to the missiles not being provided at all.
In such a case, the market will be resolved to No.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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