How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?
closes 2029
No Ukraine anymore
No Russia anymore
Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine
Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more
Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia
No cease-fire of 6 months

Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.

There is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border. For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014. Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).

The current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again. The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.

More fineprint from comment discussion:

  • If Ukraine controls only a minor part of Crimea, I'd still resolve as "Pre-2022".

  • If Ukraine-controlled landmass is roughly the same as "Pre-2022" then I would resolve it as such, even if the landmass is not all Crimea.

  • If Crimea becomes an independent state, it will hopefully clearly pick a side and we can resolve it as part of Russia or Ukraine

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Sort by:
mariopasquato avatar
mario pasquato

Unlikely but possible options not included: 1) a new sovereign state forms that is controlled by neither country 2) some other power controls a significant portion of territory.

Crimea has been an independent state before (1441-1783).

2 replies
marktweise avatar

@mariopasquato If Crimea becomes an independent state we will probably be able to determine which side it is on. I would consider Belarus like Russia and Rumania like Ukraine. Crimea under Turkish control would be tricky though.

Does that sound like a clearer resolution criterium?

mariopasquato avatar
mario pasquato

@marktweise Yeah thanks. Note btw that when the Khanate of Crimea existed it was precisely a client state of the Ottoman Empire, so Turkey.

ErikCorry avatar
Erik Corry

My best guess: Ukraine gets Crimea back, but not all of the Eastern losses. Reasoning: Crimea is hard for Russia to supply, and Ukraine can cut off the supply lines, but the areas with land border to Russia can't be cut off. If I'm wrong then it's because Ukraine gets everything back.

6 replies
mariopasquato avatar
mario pasquato

@ErikCorry What would happen to the Russian base in sevastopol in this scenario? Arguably that was part of the reason for the 2014 invasion, I doubt they would just let it go.

JoshuaWilkes avatar
Josh Wilkes

@mariopasquato In a world where Russia can't hold Crimea militarily, how are they going to hold the naval base?

uhbif19 avatar
Grigorii Gerasev

@mariopasquato The only reason for 2014 invasion was one crazy president. Once he will gone no one will give a damn about such a questions.

mariopasquato avatar
mario pasquato

@JoshuaWilkes I am arguing that they will try to make sure they can hold Crimea, possibly prioritizing it over other regions. Of course if they are wiped out completely then they will also lose the base.

ErikCorry avatar
Erik Corry

@mariopasquato I think the logisitics of holding Crimea will be more decisive than their desire to hold Crimea.

In the long run they will have to expand Novorossiysk as a replacement for Sevastopol. Sucks to be Russia with the leader they have. They could probably have kept Crimea and Sevastopol if they hadn't launched the full scale war in 2022.

mariopasquato avatar
mario pasquato

@ErikCorry Supplying water to Crimean agriculture is another issue, I wonder if there is a market on that?

Irigi avatar

How exactly do you resolve cases where Crimea is split (e.g. small fragment under control of Ukraine), or Russia controls small parts of other territory, but not all of Crimea?

5 replies
marktweise avatar

@Irigi Decision by "majority" feels fair. So controlling a small fraction of Crimea is like controlling nothing there.

Irigi avatar

@marktweise Thank you. That is majority of Crimea, right? What about the "ceding more than Crimea to Russia"? If Russia holds 75% of Crimea, for example, and also holds small portion of pre 2022 borders, it resolves yes? Or is there some minimum size?

marktweise avatar

@Irigi Does that really make a difference at this point? We will have six months of cease-fire to discuss that. It is a tradeoff between avoiding N/A and picking one of the options that is fair to traders.

Irigi avatar

@marktweise Sorry, I am not trying to nitpick. But I would say it is better to clarify the resolution criteria now as much as possible, before people start being committed to particular outcomes.

marktweise avatar
Marktweisebought Ṁ10 of No cease-fire of 6 m... NO

@Irigi You are right. Let me try to address your case "Russia holds 75% of Crimea, for example, and also holds small portion of pre 2022 borders" with one more commitment:

If Ukraine-controlled landmass is roughly the same as "Pre-2022" then I would resolve it as such, even if the landmass is not all Crimea.

tfae avatar
Lambda Fairy

What happened on July 30 that caused such a massive swing?

1 reply
MaxPayne avatar
Max Paynebought Ṁ10 of Pre-2022: Crimea con... YES

@lambda_fairy The superconductor topic brought lots of new people. That is my theory at least.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

What if the war is still ongoing in 2030 and the borders are status quo?

3 replies
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatleybought Ṁ10 of Pre-2014: Crimea con... NO

@JonathanRay Isn't that what

No cease-fire of 6 months

Is referring to?

Though I see the edge case of a six-month ceasefire followed by resumption of war.

JonathanRay avatar
Jonathan Ray

@MichaelWheatley So this resolves N/A if there's no 6-month cease-fire by 2030?

MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley

@JonathanRay It resolves to "No cease-fire of 6 months" in the event of no 6-month cease-fire by 2030

PedeJo avatar
PedeJobought Ṁ5 of No Russia anymore YES

Any option for Ukraine taking pre-2014 Russian land?

1 reply
marktweise avatar

@PedeJo Good point. That options is missing and I cannot add it anymore.

I think Pre-2014 is the closest one in that case.

CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barry

If Russia partly fragments in the east but the legacy piece keeping the Russia name, still has a Ukrainian border, does the 'no Russia anymore' option trigger or not?

1 reply
marktweise avatar
Marktweisebought Ṁ10 of No Russia anymore NO

@CromlynGames A much smaller Russia would still be Russia. Let's hope that we won't have a big debate about multiple countries calling themselves Russia.