If Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as YES.
If a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country before Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as NO.
If neither of these two events occur before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as N/A. The events in question must occur after May 1st 2024.
A target in the context of this question includes (but is not limited to): military or civilian personnel, vehicles, infrastructure.
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Reopening due to new info that what caused this to resolve was likely incorrect:
@wasabipesto "target", to me, implies that the site either had some strategic significance that would make it a potential target, or that it was actually targeted by the drone. Neither applies here since the drone was (according to Romania) diverted by Ukrainian air defence and hit an ordinary residential building
That said, I suppose a precedent was set when this market previously resolved NO in similar circumstances (and was only unresolved due to an error of fact). And I can hardly complain about making a profit
@a_l_e_x the definition of target you're using is different to the one that's explicitly given in this question's description for the context of this question
@a_l_e_x yes it is. You said something that was wrong and I was correcting that statement. Let's just leave it at that and move on.
Reopening due to new info that what caused this to resolve was likely incorrect:
@Dulaman you should check out the market on Poland, created by someone trying to pretend that Russia sending 19 kamikaze drones into Poland wasn't an act of war. Completely mind boggling.
@Lorelai these people have been getting pumped with russian misinformation over many years, past a certain point they're conditioned to say the words all by themselves. No matter how delusional it is
@traders russian attack drone was sent into Poland and hit a house
