Will Germany give a Taurus missile to Ukraine before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country?
Ukraine-Russia warUkraineGermanyNATOTaurus Missile
Mini
8
Ṁ154
2031
38%
chance

If Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as YES.

If a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country before Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as NO.

If neither of these two events occur before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as N/A. The events in question must occur after May 1st 2024.

A target in the context of this question includes (but is not limited to): military or civilian personnel, vehicles, infrastructure.

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Are you people really betting it it is more likely to see a Russian missile attack on a NATO country than Germany providing Taurus to Ukraine? Maybe the Taurus will not be given, but Russian attack on NATO should be much less likely, no?

@JuhoPennanen the fewer weapons Germany gives to Ukraine the greater the likelihood of an attack on a NATO country.

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