Will Germany give a Taurus missile to Ukraine before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country?
18
200Ṁ642
2031
60%
chance

If Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile before a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as YES.

If a Russian missile or drone hits a target in a NATO country before Germany gives Ukraine a Taurus missile, and before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as NO.

If neither of these two events occur before January 1st 2031, this question resolves as N/A. The events in question must occur after May 1st 2024.

A target in the context of this question includes (but is not limited to): military or civilian personnel, vehicles, infrastructure.

Ukraine
Ukraine-Russia war
Germany
NATO
Taurus Missile
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https://www.ft.com/content/c8c53a95-fbad-440a-bc57-5802e85c5328

What about a strike on NATO the Russians claim was intended for Ukraine, but strayed too far west?

bought Ṁ30 YES

@JussiVilleHeiskanen seems that counts

In the few days following Scholz's phone call to Putin, Russia has responded with a massive missile barrage targeted at Ukrainian civilians, and by cutting an undersea cable between Germany and Finland.

Are you people really betting it it is more likely to see a Russian missile attack on a NATO country than Germany providing Taurus to Ukraine? Maybe the Taurus will not be given, but Russian attack on NATO should be much less likely, no?

@JuhoPennanen the fewer weapons Germany gives to Ukraine the greater the likelihood of an attack on a NATO country.

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