United States Recession by End of Q2?
17
1kṀ5927Sep 25
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive negative quarters. Based on 'Third Estimate' figures.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@SaviorofPlant https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html
Q1 first estimate: -0.3% GDP growth
Close enough to the margin that it could be revised to positive, and Q2 will have less imports which provides an artificial boost to GDP, but this market was definitely underpriced at 19% yesterday
@creator Given that the end date is 9/25/2025, I assume this has to be Q1 and Q2 on 2025? (Assuming the third estimate for Q4 of 2024 doesn't suddenly become negative)
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a US recession by EOY2025?
31% chance
Will the US enter a recession by end of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
36% chance
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
45% chance
United States Recession by End of Q4 2025?
35% chance
US Recession in 2025?
37% chance
United States Recession by End of Q3?
24% chance
Will US Q2 GDP be positive?
83% chance
Will the US enter a recession by first half of 2025? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
22% chance
Was the US already in a recession in July 2024?
1% chance
US real GDP growth in Q2 2025?
1.04