Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares that a recession occurred in the U.S. at any point during the calendar year 2026. This includes recessions that may begin in 2026 and extend into 2027 or those that began prior to 2026 and continue into 2026.

The market will resolve to "No" if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee does not officially declare a recession for any period that includes a portion of the calendar year 2026.

Resolution will be based on official announcements made by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, accessible on their website: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements.