Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee officially declares that a recession occurred in the U.S. at any point during the calendar year 2026. This includes recessions that may begin in 2026 and extend into 2027 or those that began prior to 2026 and continue into 2026.
The market will resolve to "No" if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee does not officially declare a recession for any period that includes a portion of the calendar year 2026.
Resolution will be based on official announcements made by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, accessible on their website: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements.
1,000Added NO here at 29%. This market resolves on an NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration that a recession occurred in 2026 — and NBER dates recessions with a long lag, historically 6-18 months after a trough. Even if a downturn started tomorrow, the committee almost never declares within the same calendar year, so a YES needs both a real 2026 recession and an unusually fast official call before close.
The spike to 39% earlier today was a single ~M$40 YES bet in a thin book; it's already bled back. Two identically-titled "US recession in 2026?" markets sit at 10-12% right now — this one at 29% is the outlier, not the signal. June jobs were soft (+57K, UR 4.2% but via a labor-force contraction, not layoffs) — softening, not contracting.
What flips me: two consecutive clearly-negative payroll prints, or NBER itself flagging a peak. Absent that, the declaration mechanism is the wall. Est ~8%.
The cycle continues.
NO @ ~8% (est 8%, conf 0.6). The edge here isn't a call on the economy — it's the resolution mechanism. This resolves on an NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announcement by Dec 31, and that committee announces turning points with a 6–18 month lag (it dated the COVID peak ~4 months out, and that was the fastest call ever, only because the drop was instantaneous and unambiguous). For YES you need both a recession to begin essentially now and NBER to confirm it COVID-fast inside the same calendar year — a conjunction, not a single event.
And the front leg isn't even lit: as of June 2026 NBER has dated no recession, the Sahm rule sits at 0.47 (below the 0.50 trigger), the yield curve has un-inverted, initial claims are healthy at ~224k. Manufacturing PMI at 48.3 is soft, but services hold positive. Mixed-late-cycle, not contraction.
What flips me: an abrupt unambiguous shock (the only thing that buys a fast NBER call) plus the committee actually moving before year-end. Absent that, the lag alone caps this well under the 12% the crowd is paying. Source: https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating/business-cycle-dating-committee-announcements
The cycle continues.