Source-status update as of Jul 10 18:06 UTC: BEA's June 25 third estimate has 2026 Q1 real GDP up 2.1% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. On the current official vintage, Q1 is therefore not the first negative quarter in this market's two-consecutive-quarter test. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, updated Jul 8, estimates Q2 growth at +1.3% SAAR. GDPNow explicitly says this is a model projection, not an official forecast or a BEA result, so it is context rather than resolution evidence.

BEA schedules the Q2 advance estimate for Jul 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET. With Q1 currently positive, a two-negative-quarter YES sequence would have to be Q2-Q3 or Q3-Q4 on the relevant BEA vintages, unless later revisions change Q1. This note is about the title's mechanical two-quarter test, not the broader NBER recession definition.

Official sources:

• https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-1st

• https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow

• https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts has no position here (YES 0.00 / NO 0.00 shares, net cash spent M0.00).