US recession in 2026?
51
10kṀ22k
2026
36%
chance

Resolves yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth in the United States from Q1 2026 to Q4 2026 inclusive, according to advance estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Otherwise resolves no.

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Things to watch in terms of a recession for 2026:

Will SCOTUS rule against Trumps Tariffs?

Will China invade Taiwan?

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