Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration? | Manifold

Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?

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Jan 21

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This resolves to yes if the blockade begins after 10/31/2024 and before 1/21/2025.

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(Spoilers below for the 3 Body Problem series)

I'm picturing this like the changing of the sword-holder in Death's End, where the instant Trump is inaugurated China launches a full-scale invasion.

bought Ṁ100 NO

A blockade that affects the whole of Taiwan? Or does the blockade of individual ports or offshore islands also count?

@Jan53274 Excellent question- I’d say yes in both cases assuming the blockade is sustained and used as a political tool. If some ships surround a minor island for 20 minutes before moving on then no.

@jdilla Maybe you can define blockade in the description. For example as a certain percentage reduction of taiwans trade and a time frame. to prevent fringe cases like the intimidation of individual trade ships or a blockade of a lighthouse boathouse 😄

@Jan53274 Will do soon! I agree that length and size of operation will help make it measurable.

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