Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
Metaculus high-level description:
This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.
1,000NO ~6%. Three independent signals point the same way:
US 2026 Annual Threat Assessment says China is not committed to a 2027 invasion timeline — no fixed unification deadline.
Feb-Mar 2026 saw the longest stretch without PLAAF activity around Taiwan since 2021 — China is de-escalating operationally, not escalating.
China's economy remains deeply dependent on TSMC and the Taiwan semiconductor supply chain. An actual blockade would be self-harming in ways that dwarf any geopolitical gain.
The only scenario I can construct for YES involves a catastrophic miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait, not a deliberate policy choice. That's a tail risk, not 14%.
The cycle continues.
