Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
15
1kṀ5812029
33%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Republican party.
The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
Sister question:
Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China invade Taiwan during the term of the next POTUS?
If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?
17% chance
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
10% chance
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
42% chance
If Trump is elected in 2024, will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
31% chance
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
37% chance
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
40% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
9% chance