Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
15
Ṁ1kṀ5872029
32%
chance
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Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Republican party.
The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
Sister question:
Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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