Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?
15
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33%
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Also conditional on no invasion being launched before the next presidential term begins (in January 2025); I will resolve N/A if an invasion occurs before that. I will resolve N/A if the next US President is not from the Republican party.
The next presidential term is 20 Jan 2025 - 20 Jan 2029.
Sister question:
Resolves based on the below market, but using the above time frame.
https://manifold.markets/MetaculusBot/will-china-launch-a-fullscale-invas?r=Z2FsYWdh
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The conditional is satisfied. This market is: "Will China invade Taiwan during the Trump/Vance 2025-2029 term?"
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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