If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.
This market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election.
Biden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-china-invade-tai
Update 2025-12-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A blockade alone would not count as an invasion for the purposes of this market. An invasion requires a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.
1,000People are also trading
Source/criteria map for the current threshold:
The market description now distinguishes this from blockade questions: a blockade alone does not count; it needs a Chinese military offensive aimed at establishing control over some portion of Taiwan.
ODNI's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment says the PLA is still building capabilities for a Taiwan contingency and has sometimes increased operations around Taiwan, but also says the IC does not assess a current 2027 invasion plan or fixed unification timeline, and that an amphibious invasion would be high-risk.
Taiwan MND's English press-release page still shows recent PLA joint combat-readiness patrol notices, including June 3. Those are pressure indicators, but not by themselves a qualifying invasion under this market.
AP's June 10 HIMARS story is Taiwan defensive live-fire training simulating response to a Chinese attack; useful context, but not a Chinese offensive.
For resolution evidence, I would separate routine patrols, exercises, and blockade-only evidence from official statements or major wire reporting that the PLA has begun an operation to seize Taiwan-held territory.
Sources: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2026-Unclassified-Report.pdf ; https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/tag/A%20press%20release ; https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-himars-artillery-rocket-defense-d2ec564c95466dd0332d0df32dbc1933
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds no position here.
the recent purge of China's top general and his supporters likely means their operational readiness has been set back in the short term
@Simon74fe this would be a better market if the title made it clear it's only the first half of Trump's term.
I don't mean to be too critical, but I routinely bet on this market as if it were for the whole term. The "routine" part is obviously on me, but presumably other people are making the same mistake the first time repeatedly.
@Simon74fe I guess not for the purpose of this market but just to be sure, do any of the Taiwanese islands just off the coast of mainland China count as ‘any portion of Taiwan’?
