If Trump wins, will China invade Taiwan?
51
1.2kṀ43252026
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump wins the US 2024 election, will China invade Taiwan before the 2026 midterms? For the purpose of this market, an invasion is defined as any military offensive aimed at establishing control over any portion of Taiwan.
This market resolves N/A if Trump does not win the 2024 election or if China invades Taiwan before the 2024 election.
Biden market: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/if-biden-wins-will-china-invade-tai
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
When will China invade Taiwan
Will China invade any territory of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
41% chance
Will China invade the main island of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
35% chance
Will China invade the Kinmen Islands of Taiwan before Trump leaves office?
40% chance
If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?
58% chance
Will China invade Taiwan x Will the CCP lose power?
Condition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
5% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before the end of Ukraine-Russian war?
15% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan while Xi Jinping is in power?
40% chance