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MANIFOLD
Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition?
101
Ṁ1.2kṀ500k
resolved Mar 17
Resolved
NO

Resolves to firstuserhere's personal judgement, or mine if FUH is gone

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don't think anything has changed... can resolve to NO. Can you resolve it @jacksonpolack

@firstuserhere (cuz the market is supposed to resolve to my judgement which says "NO")

Seems like:
- if the leadership transition represents OpenAI becoming more x-risk-conscious, then there would be no reason to go more open-source.
- if the leadership transition represents OpenAI becoming LESS x-risk-conscious (ie, just trying to maximize profit), then... there would also be no reason to go more open source. (Surely the profit-maximizing thing to do isn't to give away your fundamental tech for free??)

predictedNO

@JacksonWagner Is open source really more dangerous than closed source at this stage? What grows faster, the ability to understand and preempt risks or the ability to create new risks? At any rate I don’t expect the incumbent to give away its secrets irrespective of x-risk considerations, so I also predict NO.

limit at 75!

Remaining people on the board seems to be relatively into AI x-risk stuff