This prediction will resolve "yes" iff OpenAI's for-profit arm still exists, and is still under the majority control of the nonprofit by January 1, 2025.
It will resolve "no" if:
OpenAI is dissolved, goes bankrupt, or is formally acquired by another entity (They are gone)
Another entity acquires a majority controlling interest in either the nonprofit or the for-profit
(They are no longer independent, formally)The leadership of either entity is replaced in such a way that there is broad consensus that their actions are being directed by a third-party
(They are no longer independent, informally)
https://www.neowin.net/news/sam-altman-says-openai-could-become-a-for-profit-meaning-it-could-eventually-ipo/?utm_source=tldrnewsletter
I would have to resolve this no if this plan were to go through. It sounds like it would include dissolving of the non-profit.