Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City by end of 2023?
Basic
28
Ṁ7619resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
Related
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
15% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
45% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
19% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
27% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
27% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
20% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
9% chance