Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City by end of 2023?
Mini
28
Ṁ7.6kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2024. Otherwise NO.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
Related
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ125 | |
2 | Ṁ12 | |
3 | Ṁ8 | |
4 | Ṁ6 | |
5 | Ṁ2 |
Related questions
Related questions
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
67% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
23% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
15% chance
Will a non-test nuclear weapon detonate by 2030?
19% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
14% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
27% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2024?
13% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
15% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
27% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance