Will a nuclear weapon detonate in New York City in 2022?
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This question will resolve as YES if a nuclear weapon detonates in the New York City metropolitan area after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
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And here's one for 2023: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-a-nuclear-weapon-detonate-in-n-6edbcd23a9f1
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