Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?
38
367
Ṁ3.4kṀ1.3k
2030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
89%
No global catastrophe
0.5%
Nuclear
2%
Biological
8%
Artificial Intelligence
0.2%
Nanotechnology
0.4%
Climate
0.4%
Other cause
If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause. Otherwise, resolves to "no global catastrophe".
See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
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