Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?

1.3kṀ3656

2030

91%

No global catastrophe

0.6%

Nuclear

1.9%

Biological

Artificial Intelligence

0.9%

Nanotechnology

0.3%

Climate

0.4%

Other cause

If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause. Otherwise, resolves to "no global catastrophe".

See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

The aggregate of 273 Metaculus community forecasters was 38% on Jul 21, 2023.

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What does was fall under?

@whhatisachoice war*

@whhatisachoice other cause, unless one of the listed causes applies (e.g. nuclear war)

bought Ṁ3 YES

Rapture.

Arbitrage with
Nuclear should be >= /AlexbGoode/will-an-accident-involving-miniatur

Arbitrage with: https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8

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